BI predicts 2011 exchange rates to decline

Jakarta (ANTARA News) - Bank Indonesia (BI) has predicted that the rupiah exchange rate next year will remain steady but with an inclination to depreciate compared to this year`s.

"BI predicts the rupiah exchange rate will range from 9,200 to 9,600 with an inclination for an upward bias," Acting Bank Indonesia Governor Darmin Nasution told a hearing with the House budgetary body in Jakarta Tuesday night.

He said under the prediction, the average assumption of the rupiah exchange rate used by the government ranges from Rp9,100 to Rp9,400 per US dollar, which is still realistic for use as basis for drawing up the 2011 State Budget.

He said the development of international commodity prices in 2011 will affect the domestic prices which are different from those of 2010 in which the inclination of international commodity prices to increase could still be offset by exchange rate inclinations.

"In this context, with the prospects of the exchange rate to decline in 2011, the impact of international commodity price hikes against domestic prices would be stronger," he said.

In the meantime, with regard to the 3-month SBI interest rate, Darmin said the assumption of the average 3-month SBI interest rate in 2011 may reach 6.5 to 7 percent, which is not too much different from the government`s estimates of 6.3 to 6.7 percent.

He said the increase, the average interest rate of SBI, had been made by already considering the improving economic prospects in 2011 followed by inclinations of the increase in pressure of the inflation.

"The prediction was also made as the developed countries may raise the interest rate of their monetary policy," he said. (*)

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